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After the 18th National Congress, China's macroeconomic policy will maintain continuity
The first Central Economic Work Conference after the handover of the high-level leadership of the Chinese Communist Party will be held soon. A number of economists interviewed said that after the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, China’s macroeconomic policies will maintain stability and continuity, and next year it will continue to implement macroeconomic policies aimed at “steady growth”, including “proactive” finances. Policies and “robust” monetary policies are expected to have an economic growth target of 7.5%.
The report of the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China proposed that by 2020, China's GDP will be doubled from 2010. This means that during this period, the average annual growth rate of China’s economy cannot be less than 7.2%. According to preliminary verification by the National Bureau of Statistics, China’s economy grew by 9.3% in 2011. China has set its target for economic growth in 2012 at 7.5%, and it expects the actual economic growth rate for the year to be between 7.5-8%.
From September to October, the series of economic data showed that the Chinese economy clearly showed a steady state of bottoming enterprises. It is expected that the fourth quarter of this year will stop the trend of declining growth for seven consecutive quarters. In the first three quarters of this year, China's economic growth rate was 8.1%, 7.6%, and 7.4%, respectively.
Zhang Liqun, researcher of the Macroeconomic Department of the Development Research Center of the State Council, said that the recovery of major advanced economies such as the United States, Europe, and Japan continued to be weak and that China’s exports were difficult to improve. In addition, domestic inflationary pressures weakened significantly. Next year, China’s macroeconomic policies will continue to “stabilize growth”. It is a primary goal and actively promotes deep-level economic restructuring to accelerate the transformation of economic development patterns.
According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, China’s CPI rose by 1.7% year-on-year in October, its rate of increase fell to the lowest point in 33 months, the PMI index returned above the “Kue wing line,” and the industrial producer price index (PPI) fell 2.8% year-on-year. The first time since May this year, the ring has been "converged".
China's investment growth rate is also quite stable. From January to May this year, investment in fixed assets (excluding rural households) increased by 20.1% from the previous year, from January to June to 20.4%, and from January to October to 20.7%. The growth rate of investment in manufacturing has remained at around 23%, which is higher than the increase in overall investment.
As one of the most important indicators of China's economy, the real estate market has also exhibited a stable state. Affected by the sales situation in the real estate market, real estate investment continued to decline since April of this year, but real estate investment in January-October increased by 15.4% year-on-year, which was the same as that in the first nine months. With the improvement of the real estate market, the sales of furniture, home appliances and decoration materials that are closely related to the purchase of houses have also started to improve. This has effectively promoted the growth of retail sales of consumer goods.